There is spatial clustering of crime in South Africa, as has been shown to be the case internationally, whether in high crime areas or in impoverished communities, such as Khayelitsha in the Western Cape or the City of Tshwane. Confirming that the Law of Crime Concentration is equally applicable in the South African context as it is in countries like the Netherlands, Israel, Brazil, Japan and the USA.. The research conducted at the University of Pretoria has shown that crime is not insidious, which is the common belief that is possibly born from how it is covered in the media, but rather spatially clustered in certain locations.
A significant amount of research and geospatial analysis has been done on key crime types to look at the ubiquity and concentration of crime. The Pareto principle or 80/20 rule as encapsulated in the Law of Crime Concentration was used as the basis to conduct the research. An analysis of the crime data was done over an 8-year period between 2008-2015 in the greater Khayelitsha area of Cape Town.
Khayelitsha established in 1983 and approximately 60 kilometers from the CBD of Cape Town, is recognized as the fifth biggest slum in the world and more recent estimates of its population is approximately 1.2 mil people. Although it is relatively homogeneous area with 75% of the population living below the upper poverty line, there are large mushrooming informal areas. The focus of the research was more specifically in Khayelitsha, Lingelethu West & Harare police stations.
The high density of formal and informal township dwellings makes the area very difficult to police. With limited roads existing within especially the informal areas, the police are unwilling to enter because of a fear of being attacked. This also means that the capturing of accurate geospatial information on crime is extremely difficult and although the South African Police Service (SAPS) have limited access to handheld GPS equipment, they are not often used.
75% of the crime occurs in 20% of Khayelitsha’s geographic area
Focusing on the crimes of rape, common assault, and common robbery, the research showed that 20% of the areas within the three police stations accounted for 75% of the crime. What the research also showed is that over a period of years the number of neighborhoods with high levels of crime tended to decrease and move from one neighborhood to another. It is postulated that this reduction in the number of areas with high levels of crime can be attributed to hot spot or tactical policing, which results in the displacement of crime from one neighborhood to another. These trends are also found internationally and affirms that the Law of Crime Concentration is equally applicable to South Africa.
Khayelitsha remains in the top 20 police stations for crime and over the eight years of the research, its crime levels have remained high. The high levels of crime resulted in the establishment of the Khayelitsha Commission in 2012. One of the recommendations was that another police station should be established in greater Khayelitsha but none of the recommendations have been implemented, as far as it is known. Since 2012 there has been an increase in crimes in Khayelitsha, Lingelethu West & Harare police stations. Similar research was conducted in the City of Tshwane focusing on all crime types. The results of the research showed that at a metropolitan level there was a spatial concentration of crime that occurred in 20% of the geographic area or the top five neighborhoods.
This emphasizes the need for different strategies to control the extent of different types of crimes in their policing. The causes of these crimes are multidimensional and multi factorial which are exacerbated by the design of South African cities with townships being disconnected from economic centers and places of employment. These design effects have yet to be resolved. Consequently, the impoverished and high crime characteristics of townships have entered into the psyche of South African citizens.
Strategic national focus on under reporting & accurate crime data is needed
In the conducting of crime research there are significant limitations, such as the underreporting of crime, which is a consequence of people not seeing it as being essential as well as their distrust of the SAPS. A further limitation is the poor quality of crime data, especially in informal areas, requiring significant amounts of cleaning for it to be used in research. Accordingly, there is a strategic need to focus on the collection and provision of accurate crime data. There is also the need for policing to be done in a more strategic fashion rather than the using a “luck and chance” approach.
More spatial research and analysis of crime is needed to contribute to reducing the levels, increase conversations on what needs to be done and adding to the international literature. To be able to conduct the required research, the SAPS needs to be more responsive in the provision of data and engaging with the research community. There is also a need for a coherent spatial information system on crime that can be used to conduct research and spatial analysis, such as in the Spatial Crime Research Center being considered at the University of Pretoria. There is no doubt that there is a need for greater support to conduct this type of research, including economic support to increase the pace and maximize the reduction of crime in South Africa.
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